Excerpts from the Globe and Mail:
Is there a strong relationship between sea ice loss and increased ship activity? Findings from the U of Ottawa study reveal that some relationship between sea ice reductions and shipping volume increases do exist, but the linkage was not as strong as might be expected. This suggests that other factors are playing a more prominent role in influencing Arctic shipping patterns, such as tourism demand, community re-supply and construction needs, as well as research and resource exploration activities. It seems like the perception that the Arctic is opening up because of climate change is greater than the reality.
But even if the reductions in sea ice are only playing a small part in influencing the increase in activity in Arctic Canada, the potential consequences of climate change for Arctic ships and for the environment in general are significant. Changing ice conditions present more hazardous operating conditions than they did in the past. The presence of more ships, regardless of the factors influencing sector growth, in combination with more hazardous ice conditions mean there is an exponential increase in the probability of incidents that will compromise safety, security, and environmental sustainability.
Authors: Jackie Dawson is Canada Research Chair in environment, society, and policy and assistant professor at the University of Ottawa; Larissa Pizzolato (M.Sc. Candidate) is a member of the Environment, Society, and Policy research group at the University of Ottawa