An expected series of strikes will delay many shipments, but the overall effect on international grain markets is expected to be muted.
A strike would have to extend 20 days or more before global buyers are likely to shift purchases to the U.S. instead of Argentina, said Terry Reilly, analyst with Citigroup in Chicago.
Argentina is the world’s second-largest corn exporter, leads soymeal and soyoil exports, and ranks third in soybean shipments.
“Given U.S. prices for beans, meal and especially soybean oil are trading at a premium to South America, importers will likely wait for the South American shipments and avoid turning to the U.S. as long as they can,” Reilly said.
China bought 80% of Argentina’s soybean exports last year.