U.S. farmers, the biggest wheat exporters, will see their share of the world market plunge to 19 percent this year, the lowest in at least five decades, down from 29 percent in 2008, government data show. Russia will supply 14 percent, up from 3 percent in 2004. Australia’s 12 percent share has almost doubled since drought damage two years ago.
“The U.S. is going to be faced with ample supplies on the world market,” said a senior grain analyst in Chicago. “It’ll be faced with more aggressive sellers.” Russia, the largest exporter after the U.S. and Canada, wants to double grain sales to 50 million tons in the decade.